Insilico Medicine (Hong Kong Exchange: 3696), an AI-based drug developer whose profile within biopharma has risen with its recent collaborations with industry giants, has offered investors an upbeat revenue and profit forecast for the first half of 2026, driven by its series of partnerships and a wide-ranging pipeline whose first program has reached late-stage development this past week.
Insilico said it expects to finish the first half of 2026 in the black, with “net profit” or net income ranging from approximately $33.5 million to $39.5 million, compared with its $19.2 million net loss in January–June 2025. Insilico also released adjusted non-International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) net profit forecasts in the range of approximately $45.5 million to $51.5 million for H1 2026. Non-IFRS metrics exclude one-time costs, such as restructuring charges and asset sales.
The company is additionally forecasting record first-half revenue ranging from approximately $102.5 million to $106.5 million, up approximately 272.7% to 287.3% from a year ago.
By contrast, Insilico finished all of 2025 with $56.239 million in revenue, down 34% from $85.834 million a year earlier, as a 69% slide in pipeline development revenue (to $23.885 million) outpaced the company’s nearly eight-fold increase in drug discovery revenue, to $24.952 million.
Notably, Insilico last year incurred a $352.5 million net loss, more than 20 times the company’s $17.1 million net loss in 2024, a jump the company attributed to the revenue drop as well as a $296.7 million loss from changes in the fair value of financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss. That loss stemmed from Insilico converting the preferred shares issued in previous financings into ordinary shares when the company went public in December, raising HKD 2.277 billion (about $292.3 million at the time; now worth $283.9 million) on the Hong Kong Exchange.
Yet just as notably, Insilico’s cash and cash equivalents more than tripled last year, to $393.338 million.
“We look forward to achieving sustained profitability,” Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD, Insilico’s founder and CEO, said in a statement.
The forecasts continued the small but noticeable rise in Insilico’s stock price since Wednesday when the company announced that its lead candidate rentosertib, a drug designed to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), has advanced to a Phase III trial, the first drug within the company’s expansive 40+ program pipeline to reach that clinical milestone.
“Full arc of our mission”
“Rentosertib is a very important program for Insilico because it represents the full arc of our mission: using AI not only to move faster, but to originate new biology, new chemistry, and new therapeutic opportunities in aging and disease,” Zhavoronkov stated.
That news sparked a mini surge that sent Insilico’s shares climbing 19% over three days. Shares rose 2.7% from HKD$36.02 ($4.49) Tuesday to HKD$37 ($4.61) Wednesday, followed by a 7.7% gain Thursday as the stock rose to HKD$39.84 ($4.97)—then a 7.5% jump Friday, with Insilico closing the week at HKD42.82 ($5.34).
At least one investment firm started coverage of Insilico’s Hong Kong-traded stock with positive commentary: Cui Cui, an equity analyst with Jefferies, initiated the firm’s coverage with a “Buy” rating and 12-month price target of HK$100 ($12.47).
Jefferies’ endorsement capped a year in which Insilico escalated its partnership activity with pharma giants and smaller biotechs, adding roughly up to $7 billion to a potential haul that could exceed $10 billion.
The largest of these collaborations is its up-to-$2.75 billion collaboration ($115 million upfront) with Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), under which Insilico granted Lilly an exclusive global license to develop, manufacture, and commercialize “potentially best-in-class, novel oral therapeutics in preclinical development for certain indications,” according to an announcement that didn’t specify the therapeutic areas where the companies plan to partner. The alliance expanded from an “over $100 million” R&D partnership inked last November, which in turn grew from a 2023 licensing agreement allowing Lilly to access Insilico’s Pharma.AI software suite.
“Combining first-mover advantage, wet-lab validation, deep medical science, and in-house clinical expertise to train and refine AI, plus LLY’s endorsement, Insilico looks well positioned for scalable BD [business development] and LT [long-term] monetization,” Cui wrote in a research note.
“As AI-driven productivity cont[inues] to scale PCC [preclinical candidate] output, Insilico is positioned to expand its pool of proprietary assets, enhancing the likelihood of future out-licensing opp[ortunity] and strengthening LT monetization potential,” Cui added.
Zhavoronkov highlighted the research note on his LinkedIn feed, adding: “I think that in many ways the analysts know the industry and the company even better than some of the insiders. Definitely worth a read.”
Phase III plans
Cui’s comments followed Insilico announcing its Phase III plans for rentosertib (formerly ISM001-055), which is designed to treat IPF by targeting Traf2- and NCK-interacting kinase (TNIK), a serine/threonine kinase whose activation plays a crucial role in cellular processes that include signal transduction pathways essential for fibrosis development.
Insilico said its planned Phase III trial (NCT07687459) will be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study that is expected to enroll 320 participants across 47 centers in China. The trial’s primary endpoint will be the annual rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) over 52 weeks, with a key secondary endpoint of time to first occurrence of any disease progression event.
The Phase III trial aims to assess whether rentosertib can provide clinically meaningful benefit in a larger patient population and over a longer treatment period than its two 12-week Phase IIa studies.
Rentosertib has completed a Phase IIa trial (NCT05938920) in China, published in Nature Medicine last year, and is in a separate Phase II trial (NCT05975983) in the United States. In the Chinese trial, rentosertib met its primary endpoint of safety and tolerability across all dose levels, as well as positive secondary endpoint data, namely dose-dependent FVC improvement with a mean FVC change of +98.4 mL at 12 weeks in patients dosed at 60 mg once daily, vs. -20.3 mL for placebo.
During the BIO International Convention in San Diego, Zhavoronkov hinted at the Phase III, highlighting a planned “next step” for the program “in the second half, but maybe closer to the earlier second half,” he told GEN.
At the convention, Zhavoronkov led Insilico in celebrating its latest big-money collaboration, an up-to-$2.5 billion partnership with SK Biopharmaceuticals to discover new AI-based drug candidates for disorders affecting the neuroimmune area of the central nervous system (CNS). Insilico agreed to apply its Pharma.AI platform, which addresses target validation, generative chemistry, and molecule optimization, along with its preclinical drug discovery expertise, to discover, design, and optimize candidates for neuroimmune indications against targets that will originate with SK.
SK is part of a privately held, family-owned chaebol or conglomerate whose parent holding company is public, SK Inc. (Korea Exchange: 034730). Another SK-owned company—SK Hynix (Nasdaq: SKHY), a supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips that power the AI processors of Nvidia and AMD—went public Friday, raising a staggering $26.5 billion by pricing its U.S. American depositary shares (ADS) at $149 each.
Potentially lucrative partnerships
In addition to SK and Lilly, Insilico also has potentially lucrative partnerships with Sanofi (Euronext Paris: SAN), with which Insilico plans to advance up to six targets (up to $1.2 billion); privately held Menarini Group, to which it has outlicensed Phase I cancer treatments targeting KAT6 and KIF18A (up to $1.05 billion in collaborations launched 2024 and 2025); privately held, French-based Servier, also cancer focused (up to $888 million); and Takeda Pharmaceutical (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 4502), drug discovery across its therapeutic areas (up to $600 million).
Also among Insilico’s collaboration partners: Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL), to which Insilico outlicensed in 2023 a Phase I BRCA-mutated cancer drug targeting USP1 (“close to” $1 billion plus royalties), Fosun Pharma (Shanghai Stock Exchange: 600196; Hong Kong Exchange: 02196), which is joining Insilico on R&D for four biological targets plus co-development of Insilico’s QPCTL program (up to $82 million, including $13 million upfront and a $15 million equity investment); Fosun-backed but privately held Hygtia Therapeutics, which is co-developing with Insilico ISM8969, a Phase I oral brain penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor, in CNS disorders (up to $66 million, including $10 million upfront and milestones); and Taipei-based TaiGen Biotechnology (Taipei Exchange: TWD), which holds Greater China rights to an oral PHD1/2 inhibitor in anemia of chronic kidney disease (milestones and royalties totaling “two-digit million dollars”).
Rounding out the list of Insilico’s disclosed collaboration partners are Chinese-based Qilu Pharmaceutical Group, which is partnering to jointly develop small molecule inhibitors for specific targets in cardiometabolic disease management (up to “near” $120 million, including milestones and single-digit royalties); China Medical System Holdings (CMS; Hong Kong Exchange: 867 and Singapore Exchange: 8A8), which is teaming up with Insilico on discovering drugs for central nervous system and autoimmune diseases (up to “tens of millions in Hong Kong dollars per project in R&D support”); and Tenacia Biotechnology, a Bain Capital-backed, privately held Sanghai-based drug developer which in March joined Insilico to expand a year-old R&D collaboration aimed at developing therapies for “underserved” neurological disorders (up to $94.75 million in near-term and milestone payments).
Insilico has out-licensed to undisclosed partners rights to a GLP-1R-targeting program designed to treat obesity and metabolic diseases; and Greater China rights to a Nav1.8-targeting program designed to treat pain.
Vaxart takes a double dose of good news
Settlement ends threat of proxy war; COVID-19 pill aces Phase IIb trial
This week’s annual shareholder meeting had threatened to be anything but routine for Vaxart (Nasdaq: VXRT) after its current executive team and three of its six nominees for board seats had been challenged by an activist shareholder through a proxy campaign.
Since last fall, shareholder Daniel P. Houle and allies have offered persistent criticism of Vaxart’s management—led by CEO Steven Lo and Sean Tucker, PhD, senior vice president and CSO—and the company’s board, whose operations and independent oversight are led by a lead independent director, W. Mark Watson, rather than a traditional chair.
But earlier this month, the threat of a proxy war over Vaxart’s direction ended when Houle and five allies signed a cooperation agreement with the company. Vaxart agreed to begin a search for an additional independent director to be conducted within 90 days of the conclusion of the 2026 annual meeting. Vaxart also agreed to work with Houle and allies to identify a “mutually agreeable” candidate for appointment to the board.
In return, the stockholder group consisting of Houle and his allies—Mark Silverberg, MD; Matthew M. Wallace, MD; Patrice Raffy; Marc Eustace Pereira; and Q3 Nominees Pty Ltd.—agreed to withdraw their board nominations for Houle, Silverberg, and Wallace.
The cooperation agreement also calls for:
- Creation of a Stockholder Engagement Committee and a Clinical and Regulatory Affairs Committee
- A revamp or “refreshment” of board committee chairs, including the selection of new chairs for the Nominating and Governance and Compensation Committees
- Adoption of director stock ownership and resignation policies
- Customary standstill, voting, engagement, and other provisions
“Vaxart is approaching a series of important value-inflection milestones, and these actions enable the company to move forward with a unified focus on executing its strategy,” Watson said in a statement. “We appreciate the constructive dialogue with the stockholder group toward our shared goal of creating value and are pleased to resolve our proxy contest so we can dedicate our full resources and attention to advancing our pipeline with stockholder interests in mind.”
Houle and allies insisted they believe “deeply” in the promise of Vaxart’s oral vaccine platform and resulting commercial opportunities—but took issue with the company’s declining stock price, capital raises that they said diluted the value of existing shareholders’ stock, and with what they termed insufficient oversight by the board.
In February, Houle launched his campaign to persuade shareholders to elect himself, Silverberg, and Wallace to Vaxart’s board. Silverberg is founder and CIO of Heatjac, a manufacturer of heated medical garments. Wallace is a double board-certified dermatologist and Mohs micrographic surgeon, and managing partner of a medical specialty practice focused on dermatology, dermatologic surgery, and oncology.
“We believe Vaxart possesses a unique technology platform with the potential to reshape vaccine delivery and transform global public health. Yet despite this promise, stockholder value has remained significantly compromised,” Houle and allies, calling themselves the Concerned Vaxart Shareholders, wrote in a June 9 letter to shareholders. “Despite these strengths, stockholders have endured years of disappointing performance, declining market value, and insufficient engagement from those entrusted to represent our interests.”
They also took issue with Vaxart’s two workforce reductions last year. The first was a 10% cut after Advanced Technology International, a nonprofit R&D collaboration manager acting on behalf of the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), issued the first of two stop-work orders on the company’s Phase IIb trial assessing its government-funded COVID-19 oral pill vaccine. The second was a 21% cut in May–June 2025 intended to lower operating costs and better align Vaxart’s resources with higher-priority clinical programs.
“This election is not about creating conflict. It is about restoring confidence,” the Concerned Vaxart Shareholders added. “It is about restoring accountability, increasing transparency, and ensuring that stockholder interests are once again placed at the center of the company’s decision-making process.
Concerned Shareholders owned 1,515,343 shares of Vaxart stock—including 15,622 owned by Houle himself—as of a May 6 regulatory filing.
In an interview at the recent Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) International Convention in San Diego, Lo and Tucker defended the company-endorsed board nominees as possessing greater biotech-related experience.
Lo defended the workforce cuts: “You want to be at the right size. You want to extend your runway. And we’re very careful with shareholder money. We don’t want to exhaust our funds. The reduction in the workforce was not only to extend our cash runway, but also make sure that this company had the right people to fulfill its mission.”
“Our case is, we have a very experienced management team. We have to stay the course,” Lo added. “We are in a great situation where we have good relationships with the U.S. government, as evidenced by being one of the only companies that has survived stop-work orders. We also have good relationships with pharma, as evidenced by our deal with Dynavax.”
Following a second stop-work order issued in August 2025, Vaxart and BARDA agreed to reduce funding for the Phase IIb trial to about $345 million from up to $453 million, but maintain the study at the estimated 5,485 patients recruited by Vaxart. In November 2025, Vaxart signed an up-to-$700 million global exclusive license for the oral COVID-19 vaccine with Dynavax Technologies, with Vaxart allowed to run the trial. Dynavax was acquired by Sanofi (Euronext Paris: SAN) for $2.2 billion, in a deal completed in February.
The cooperation agreement was one of two positive announcements Vaxart shared on July 6. The other was good clinical news: positive topline data from the approximately 400-participant sentinel safety cohort of its Phase IIb trial (NCT06672055) assessing the company’s oral pill COVID-19 vaccine candidate against an undisclosed approved mRNA vaccine comparator. Among key findings:
- No vaccine-related serious adverse events (SAEs) or sustained Grade 3 or higher AEs were reported in either the oral pill vaccine or mRNA arms of the trial.
- The most common AEs for oral vaccine patients were malaise/fatigue (20.9%), headache (18.9%), and anorexia (10.0%). Fewer than 10% of participants experienced any other AE.
- By contrast, the most common AEs in participants receiving the mRNA vaccine were injection site pain (60.3%), injection site tenderness (40.2%), malaise/fatigue (35.2%), myalgia/muscle pain (33.2%), and headache (28.6%). Arthralgia, chills, anorexia, nausea, diarrhea, and induration/swelling at the injection site were experienced by between 10–15% of participants. Fewer than 10% of participants experienced any other AE.
- Thirty-three participants in Vaxart’s oral pill vaccine arm and 30 in the mRNA vaccine arm had symptomatic COVID-19. Asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported in 12 participants in each of the trial arms.
“These topline safety data are encouraging and are consistent with the safety profile observed to date in other studies of our oral pill vaccine constructs,” stated James Cummings, MD, Vaxart’s chief medical officer.
Vaxart shares, which trade under $1, rose 16% from 55 cents on June 25 to 64 cents on July 2, the day of the filing disclosing the cooperation agreement. Since then, shares have given back the entire gain, sliding back to 55 cents at Friday’s close.
Leaders and laggards
- Chemomab Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CMMB) shares tumbled 29% from $2.77 to $1.97 Wednesday after the developer of therapeutics for immune-fibrotic diseases with high unmet need said it agreed to merge with precision medicine developer Scipher Medicine through an all-stock merger. The combined company plans to operate under the Scipher Medicine name and trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SCIP. Upon completion of the merger, the combined company plans to focus initially on advancing nebokitug, a first-in-class clinical-stage anti-CCL24 antibody, into a Phase II trial for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, Chemomab said. The combined company is valued at $150 million before a concurrent $30 million private placement from a syndicate of current Scipher investors led by Northpond Ventures, with participation from Khosla Ventures, Blue Owl Healthcare Opportunities, funds managed by Neuberger, and other leading investors, and is expected to have cash runway into the second half of 2028.
- Forte Biosciences (Nasdaq: FBRX) shares rocketed 78% from $20.38 to $36.70 Thursday after the developer of treatments for autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases announced positive results from the FB102 double-blind placebo-controlled Phase Ib study in vitiligo. FB102 achieved a 29.6% mean Facial Vitiligo Area Scoring Index (FVASI) improvement from baseline at week 24 (p-value = 0.020). Response to FB102 was seen early, Forte said, with statistically significant improvements observed by the day 64 visit (p=0.023), continuing through week 24, after completion of the 12-week treatment period. FB102 achieved 43.2% mean FVASI improvement from baseline at week 24 (p-value = 0.006) in subjects with greater disease involvement having baseline FVASI ≥0.75 (approximately one-quarter of face depigmented), including FVASI50 (58.8%) and FVASI75 (23.5%). Forte shares continued climbing Friday, rising another 20% to $43.92.
The post StockWatch: Insilico Projects Profit, Revenue Leaps as AI-Developed Lead Candidate Moves to Phase III appeared first on GEN – Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.
